iTunes 4.9 to kill Odeo?
Over at SvN, they posted about Apple turning podcasting mainstream via iTunes 4.9. A lot of comments preached about how this will kill Odeo.
I disagree. I think iTunes 4.9 sets the path for Odeo to succeed.
Who wants to be in a field with no competitors? Sure it looks appealing at first: no price wars, no fighting for market share, etc. Then you realize no competition could mean nobody else believes in the market. Having Apple put their stamp of approval on podcasting basically tells Odeo, "Hey, you're in the right game, stay right here."
It also brings a hell of a lot more visitors to Odeo.
I'm going to make up the following figures, but bear with me for example's sake. Say iTunes has 100,000,000 downloads previous to 4.9 (I don't think it's too far fetched given Firefox just surpassed 75MM, but if someone has more accurate stats, leave a comment). Also say Odeo has 10,000 users previous to 4.9. Now, if 10% of the iTunes users (1,000,000) look further into podcasting, there's a fair chance they'll find Odeo. So, let 25% of those find Odeo - that's 250,000 users. Or a 25x increase in users thanks to iTunes.
What will they use Odeo for? Well, maybe to find some podcasts which don't make their way to iTunes, but that's unlikely. Certainly a lot of them will like the fact that they can keep track of their favorite podcasts while switching computers. A few (myself included) will really enjoy the fact that they don't need additional software (e.g. I won't install iTunes on my work machine). A lot of them will probably really enjoy the upcoming creation tools.
My main point is, if I were Odeo, I wouldn't be scared yet. I'd be finding the best ways to take advantage of iTunes taking their niche mainstream.
I disagree. I think iTunes 4.9 sets the path for Odeo to succeed.
Who wants to be in a field with no competitors? Sure it looks appealing at first: no price wars, no fighting for market share, etc. Then you realize no competition could mean nobody else believes in the market. Having Apple put their stamp of approval on podcasting basically tells Odeo, "Hey, you're in the right game, stay right here."
It also brings a hell of a lot more visitors to Odeo.
I'm going to make up the following figures, but bear with me for example's sake. Say iTunes has 100,000,000 downloads previous to 4.9 (I don't think it's too far fetched given Firefox just surpassed 75MM, but if someone has more accurate stats, leave a comment). Also say Odeo has 10,000 users previous to 4.9. Now, if 10% of the iTunes users (1,000,000) look further into podcasting, there's a fair chance they'll find Odeo. So, let 25% of those find Odeo - that's 250,000 users. Or a 25x increase in users thanks to iTunes.
What will they use Odeo for? Well, maybe to find some podcasts which don't make their way to iTunes, but that's unlikely. Certainly a lot of them will like the fact that they can keep track of their favorite podcasts while switching computers. A few (myself included) will really enjoy the fact that they don't need additional software (e.g. I won't install iTunes on my work machine). A lot of them will probably really enjoy the upcoming creation tools.
My main point is, if I were Odeo, I wouldn't be scared yet. I'd be finding the best ways to take advantage of iTunes taking their niche mainstream.
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