Sunday, April 22, 2007

New tumblelog: http://iseff.tumblr.com

My presence on the web is ever-growing, so I wanted to make it easier for people to stalk follow me. Tumblelogs seem like a good way of doing that and tumblr is a nice, clean, free service.

I've put together a tumblelog available at iseff.tumblr.com which puts together all the feeds I could think of about myself:
One feature request I have for tumblr is to have the ability for setting where I want to auto-discovered feed to point to. That is, I'd like to wrap the iseff.tumblr.com RSS feed with FeedBurner and tell tumblr that so that I can accurately track subscribers.

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Monday, April 16, 2007

Target 2045 Retirement

As part of my 401(k), I'm invested in a "target retirement" fund. The general idea is rather than worrying about what to be invested in, just choose when you'd like to retire and the fund management takes care of the rest. Sounds nice, right?

Well, if 2045 is 38 years away, why are they investing in:
  1. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (71.9%)
  2. Vanguard European Stock Index Fund (10.4%)
  3. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (10.2%)
  4. Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund (4.8%)
  5. Vanguard Emerging markets Stock Index Fund (2.7%)
Index funds!? >70% to a stock market index fund?! It seems to me that with 38 years to make money, I'd like to way outperform the market. Here's more or less what I would do if I were managing a Target 2045 Retirement fund:
  1. Stem-cell research start-ups (20%)
  2. Software start-ups (20%)
  3. Nanotechnology start-ups (20%)
  4. Cancer research start-ups (20%)
  5. International small-cap growth fund (20%)
If I lose money in the short-term on any of these, no big deal; I still have 30+ years to make it back. But the upside potential is huge.

And here's what I'd do if I were managing a Target 2012 Retirement fund:
  1. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (71.9%)
  2. Vanguard European Stock Index Fund (10.4%)
  3. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (10.2%)
  4. Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund (4.8%)
  5. Vanguard Emerging markets Stock Index Fund (2.7%)
Look familiar? With this scheme, I'm highly unlikely to lose a lot of money in the next few years, but I'm also highly unlikely to kill the market.

What am I missing?

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