I'll be up front: I don't get social networking. That said, I like watching the progress of what I call the web-ization of social networking (things want to be free, things want to be open, etc).

But perhaps the most interesting thing I've seen so far is this quote from Brandee Barker of Facebook:

Despite reports, Facebook has still not been briefed on OpenSocial.

You mean to tell me that after weeks of negotiations on a hundreds of millions of dollar deal, Google never told Facebook about its plans?

My guesses as to what happened:

1. Google had been planning this as a contingency to losing the Facebook deal. If the FB deal went through, they may not have released this so soon.
   
2. Or, perhaps, just perhaps, Google took the more-evil route. They knew Microsoft had more to lose (they really need to spur growth to their advertising business and show a big win), so they intentionally bid up the valuation on FB with no interest in actually winning, let MSFT close at a more expensive price, and then steal their thunder just a week later.
   

Just thinking out loud here..

Labels: facebook, google, Microsoft, opensocial

A long, long time ago (March, 2004), the tech-world was abuzz about a startup in breakout mode named Google. Rumors were floating about if and when the company would go public when an SEC loophole was found. It was only a short time later (April, 2004) that Google did file for an IPO which set the tech world on fire.

Today the geeksters are all abuzz about another startup in breakout mode, named Facebook. The same hype circle is flowing and people are now speculating on its IPO. Let me put that to rest and predict that it will happen within 12 months.

Why 12 months? Let's revisit Google. A primary motivator for Google going public when it did was the SEC loophole. The rule is going to hit Facebook in the same way:

Under securities law, U.S. companies that have $10 million of total assets and more than 500 stockholders must file a Form 10 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Tonight at the Web 2.0 Summit, Mark Zuckerberg stated, according to SAI:

Facebook has 300 employees (all with equity) and will have 700 in a year.

One can only imagine that at least half of the next 400 employees will also have equity. The $10 million in assets is practically a given.

Given this, it seems that Facebook will file by this time next year. At the latest, it will file April, 2009 (assuming no acquisitions) because the rule states that if your fiscal year ends December 31 and you are above the thresholds, you must file by April 30.

Labels: facebook, google, ipo, mark zuckerberg, markzuckerberg, sec, web 2.0, web 2.0 summit, web2.0, zuckerberg